Filed under: Consumer confidence, Inflation, Norhill Wealth Strategies Report, Safe Investments | Tags: Annualized Inflation, Dow Jones Industrial Average, Homebuying market, housing market, Inflation, Norhill Wealth Strategies, rebounding Stock market, Warren Elkin
ACTIONS in GREECE & ITALY CALM MARKETS
Global investors seemed reassured at the end of last week by developments in the European Union. By Friday, Greek prime minister George Papandreou had stepped down; Italian prime minister Silvio Berlusconi’s resignation was at hand. Greek prime minister designate Lucas Papademos and a new coalition government will now be charged with implementing austerity cuts as Greece accepts the EU’s latest €130 billion aid package. Italy’s senate passed new economic reforms at the end of the week aimed at reducing its sovereign debt. Italy’s treasury was also able to sell €5 billion of one-year notes , albeit at 6.09% interest.1,2
A BIG REBOUND IN CONSUMER CONFIDENCE
The preliminary November consumer sentiment index from the University of Michigan was a nice surprise. It came in at 64.2; far better than the final mark of 60.9 for October and the 61.3 consensus forecast of economists polled by Briefing.com. The reading hasn’t been this high since June. The future expectations sub-index improved to 56.2 from the previous 51.8.3
OIL PUSHES TOWARD $100 AGAIN
On Veterans Day, oil futures settled at $98.99 on the NYMEX after a +5.02% week that saw prices rise $3.25 across Thursday and Friday. Gold prices posted a weekly gain as well: the precious metal gained 1.83% on the COMEX for the week, and that brought its 3-week advance to 9.32%.4
STRONG FRIDAY PUTS DOW BACK IN THE BLACK
The DJIA climbed 260 points on Friday after rising 113 points on Thursday, almost offsetting Wednesday’s 389-point descent. That left it at +4.98% YTD. Last week’s performances: DJIA, +1.42% to 12,153.68; S&P 500, +0.85% to 1,263.85; NASDAQ, -0.28% to 2,678.75.5,6,7
THIS WEEK: Key economic releases will be complemented by earnings from the big boxes. Monday, Lowe’s, Urban Outfitters and JCPenney issue 3Q results. On Tuesday, Wal-Mart, Home Depot, Staples, Dell and Beazer Homes come out with earnings, and the October PPI arrives along with October’s retail sales report from the Census Bureau. Wednesday, the October CPI appears along with data on October industrial output; 3Q results roll in from Target and Abercrombie & Fitch. Thursday brings earnings from Ross Stores, Sears, Dollar Tree, GameStop and GAP, the latest initial claims figures and October’s housing starts report. Friday, Heinz announces 3Q results, EU finance ministers meet and the Conference Board offers its October leading indicator index.
| % CHANGE | Y-T-D | 1-YR CHG | 5-YR AVG | 10-YR AVG |
| DJIA | +4.98 | +7.72 | +0.00075 | +2.72 |
| NASDAQ | +0.98 | +4.82 | +2.42 | +4.56 |
| S&P 500 | +0.49 | +4.15 | -1.70 | +1.30 |
| REAL YIELD | 11/11 RATE | 1 YR AGO | 5 YRS AGO | 10 YRS AGO |
| 10 YR TIPS | -0.04% | 0.71% | 2.25% | 3.50% |
Sources: cnbc.com, bigcharts.com, treasury.gov, treasurydirect.gov – 11/11/117,8,9,10
Indices are unmanaged, do not incur fees or expenses, and cannot be invested into directly.
These returns do not include dividends.
Filed under: Consumer confidence, Economic Outlook, Inflation, Norhill Wealth Strategies Report, Secure Investments | Tags: Annualized Inflation, Dow Jones Industrial Average, Homebuying market, housing market, Inflation, Norhill Wealth Strategies, rebounding Stock market, Warren Elkin
JOBLESS RATE DECREASES TO 9.0%
Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News had expected unemployment to stay at 9.1% in October, so this was a nice development. Still, this latest jobs report had something in common with its predecessors: underwhelming job growth. Non-farm payrolls expanded by 80,000 positions last month, but that fell short of the 95,000 new jobs envisioned in the consensus Bloomberg forecast. On the bright side, the percentage of underemployed Americans fell from 16.5% to 16.2% and the long-term unemployed (those out of work for at least 27 weeks) shrank to 42.4% of the jobless population, the lowest percentage since November 2010.1
BOTH ISM INDICES MOVE LOWER
The Institute for Supply Management’s purchasing manager indexes were both above 50 in October, but not quite where they were at a month before. The ISM manufacturing index slipped from 51.6 to 50.8; its service sector index ticked down to 52.9 from the preceding 53.0. The service sector employment gauge improved by 4.6% and moved from 48.7 in September (contraction) to 53.3 (expansion).2
GOLD & OIL POST WEEKLY GAINS
Oil futures advanced 1.01% last week to settle at $94.26 per barrel on the NYMEX Friday. Prices have jumped 19.02% over the past five weeks of trading. Gold logged a 0.52% gain last week, closing at $1,755.30 an ounce on the COMEX Friday.3
GREEK THEATRE PREOCCUPIES WALL STREET
The whims of Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou affected stocks more than anything last week: first he announced a public vote on the latest austerity cuts for the nation, reconsidered it, and then prepared to step down Friday amid concerns that he might change his mind. As these weekly performance numbers show, bears were roaming last week: DJIA, -2.03% to 11,983.24; S&P 500, -2.48% to 1,253.23; NASDAQ, -1.86% to 2,686.15.4,5,6
THIS WEEK: No major economic releases are slated for Monday; we do have results from Priceline and SYSCO. Eurozone finance ministers conclude their meeting in Brussels on Tuesday, and Toyota presents earnings. Wednesday, Ben Bernanke speaks at a Federal Reserve conference on small business; earnings come in from GM, Anheuser Busch, HSBC, Cisco, Green Mountain, Ralph Lauren, Macy’s and Wendy’s. Thursday we have earnings from Viacom, Kohl’s, Disney and Nordstrom; Ben Bernanke speaks at an El Paso town hall. Friday is Veterans Day: banks are closed, markets are open, and the initial October University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey arrives plus earnings from D.R. Horton.
| % CHANGE | Y-T-D | 1-YR CHG | 5-YR AVG | 10-YR AVG |
| DJIA | +3.50 | +4.80 | -0.000047 | +2.69 |
| NASDAQ | +1.25 | +4.22 | +3.05 | +4.98 |
| S&P 500 | -0.35 | +2.63 | -1.63 | +1.36 |
| REAL YIELD | 11/4 RATE | 1 YR AGO | 5 YRS AGO | 10 YRS AGO |
| 10 YR TIPS | -0.08% | 0.44% | 2.40% | 3.50% |
Sources: cnbc.com, bigcharts.com, treasury.gov, treasurydirect.gov – 11/4/116,7,8,9
Indices are unmanaged, do not incur fees or expenses, and cannot be invested into directly.
These returns do not include dividends.
Filed under: Consumer confidence, Economic Outlook, Inflation, Norhill Wealth Strategies Report, Secure Investments | Tags: Annualized Inflation, Dow Jones Industrial Average, Homebuying market, housing market, Inflation, Norhill Wealth Strategies, rebounding Stock market, Warren Elkin
ANNUALIZED INFLATION HITS 3.9%
So noted the Bureau of Labor Statistics last week. The Consumer Price Index rose 0.3% during the month of September, with core CPI rising 0.1%, the smallest such increase in six months. (Annualized core consumer inflation was at 2.0%.) The Producer Price Index climbed 0.8% for September after a flat August.1
HOMEBUYING TAPERS OFF IN SEPTEMBER
Existing home sales decreased by 3.0% last month, according to the National Association of Realtors. At this rate, about 4.91 million previously occupied homes will be sold in 2011, matching the total for 2010. In a normal year, about 6 million residential resales occur in the real estate sector.2
HOUSING STARTS UP 15%
Here’s a good sign for residential real estate: a sign of demand. Most of the 15.0% monthly increase in September came from apartment construction; the Commerce Department reported a 53% monthly jump in that category. Single-family construction improved by 1.7%. Overall, there were 658,000 housing starts last month, the best number in any month since April 2010.3
DOW EXTENDS WINNING STREAK
Wall Street rallied Friday on the eve of the crucial summit meeting to address the Eurozone debt crisis, helped by news that a new aid package for Greece had been approved by EU finance ministers. The DJIA gained ground for the fourth week in a row; the S&P 500 also advanced. The weekly numbers: S&P 500, +1.12% to 1,238.25; DJIA, +1.41% to 11,808.79; NASDAQ, -1.14% to 2,637.46.4,5
THIS WEEK: Earnings season is in full swing. Monday, earnings reports from Netflix, Amgen, Caterpillar and Texas Instruments hit the Street. On Tuesday, BP, Deutsche Bank, Amazon.com, Broadcom, DuPont, UBS and 3M issue 3Q results … and the August Case/Shiller Home Price Index comes out along with the Conference Board’s October gauge of consumer confidence. On Wednesday, quarterly results arrive from Boeing, VISA, GlaxoSmithKline, Sprint, ConocoPhillips and Ford and we have data on September new home sales and durable goods orders. Thursday brings the initial estimate of 3Q GDP and the data on September pending home sales, plus earnings from ExxonMobil, Occidental Petroleum, Baidu, P&G, Aetna, Bristol-Myers Squibb, Time Warner Cable, Hershey and Motorola Solutions. Friday, earnings from Merck and Chevron come out along with the report on September consumer spending and October’s final University of Michigan consume r sentiment index.
Sources: cnbc.com, bigcharts.com, treasury.gov, treasurydirect.gov – 10/21/114,5,6,7,8
Indices are unmanaged, do not incur fees or expenses, and cannot be invested into directly.
These returns do not include dividends.
Economy: Amid the good news of a rebounding stock market and better job growth comes a warning: Inflation may flare up soon. If it does, don’t blame business.
Maybe you think it’s crazy to worry about inflation when the consumer price index is rising at a modest 1.5% year over year. That’s a valid point. It’s also true that many of the items that make up inflation in our daily lives are climbing fast.
Raw food commodity indexes, for example, have hit all-time highs. And the broader CRB Commodity Index, including food, energy and industrial commodities, has run up 32% the past 12 months.
As anyone who owns a car or truck knows, oil prices have jumped 29% in the past year to more than $108 a barrel. This has pushed gasoline prices over $3.60 a gallon nationally, twice what they were when President Obama entered office.
As for that weak CPI, there are good reasons to question the government’s benign official readings. Bill Simon is one of them. When the CEO of Wal-Mart’s U.S. arm talks, we listen. And last week he told consumers to get ready for a burst of “serious” inflation.
Toyota Motor Co. is another. Americans typically ignore the impact of a weaker dollar. But the biggest carmaker in the world has announced price hikes across the board for all of its vehicles, in large part due to the weaker U.S. currency.
Monetary officials, including the presidents of the Federal Reserve Banks of Richmond, Minneapolis and Dallas, have also weighed in. They too see inflation ahead and suggest the Fed may start raising rates soon.
John Williams, of the useful and iconoclastic Shadow Government Statistics website, measures prices the old-fashioned way. He employs the methodology used before 1992, when Labor Department changes started producing milder readings.
By his measure, inflation is close to 10%, tracking price increases for commodities, energy, food, precious metals and health care, among other items. Once this is recognized, expect business to get the blame and Congress to convene hearings on “price gouging,” as it’s done dozens of times (without finding any).
It’s really government that causes inflation with actions such as:
• The $2 trillion in money created by the Fed under “quantitative easing” since 2008, an unprecedented shot of liquidity pumped straight into the economy.
• The $5.5 trillion in new debt added by our government in just three years — nearly a 60% rise.
• The Environmental Protection Agency’s move to regulate all stationary producers of carbon dioxide, which has led businesses to put off large investments.
• The surge in regulation at all levels of government, which has added to small-business uncertainty and reduced hiring.
• The record 29% jump in federal spending in President Obama’s first three years, which has crowded out private spending and business investment.
• Spending on TARP and “stimulus,” which could total nearly $2 trillion when all is said and done.
The list goes on. The point is, don’t blame companies like Wal-Mart, a proven price cutter, when inflation hits home.
Blame the federal government, which seems dead set on repeating the same errors it made in the stagflationary 1970s.
Filed under: Wealth Strategies Report | Tags: 401k Rollover, Annuities, Elkin Financial Report, Norhill Financial, Norhill Financial Report, Norhill Financial Strategies, Norhill Wealth Management, Norhill Wealth Strategies, retirement planning, Retirement Plans, Retirement Wealth Strategies, Safe Investments, Senior Investing, Senior Investments, Warren Elkin
By Warren Elkin, Norhill Wealth Strategies
October 17, 2011
RETAIL SALES JUMP MOST IN 7 MONTHS
On Friday, the Commerce Department said overall U.S. retail spending improved 1.1% in September, with auto sales rising 3.6% for the month and department store sales up 1.1%. August retail sales – previously recorded as flat – were revised north to a 0.3% gain.1
UMICH SENTIMENT SURVEY SHOWS A DECLINE
The University of Michigan’s initial October consumer sentiment poll came in 57.5, under the final September reading of 59.4. As the Wall Street Journal noted, consensus forecasts expected a reading of around 60.2
GOLD & OIL REBOUND IMPRESSIVELY
NYMEX crude futures rose 4.60% last week, settling at $86.80 a barrel on Friday and putting oil up 9.60% so far for October. Gold futures settled at $1,681.80 on the COMEX Friday, capping the best week for the metal since the start of September – a 2.89% five-day advance.3
DOW, NASDAQ GET BACK IN THE BLACK FOR 2011
As the European Union seemingly progressed toward a solution to its debt crisis, clouds parted on Wall Street. It was a great week for U.S. equities, as these numbers show: S&P 500, +5.98% to 1,224.58; DJIA, +4.88% to 11,644.49; NASDAQ, +7.60% to 2,667.85. Friday, the CBOE VIX closed below 29 and all three of the major indices closed at 10-week highs.4,5
THIS WEEK: Wall Street teems with earnings reports. Monday, we have 3Q results from IBM, Wells Fargo, Hasbro, Charles Schwab, Gannett, Halliburton, Stanley Black & Decker and Citigroup, plus a report on September industrial output. Tuesday, we also have earnings from Coca-Cola, Johnson & Johnson, Apple, Intel, Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, Yahoo! and CSX, and the PPI for September comes out; additionally, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke speaks at the Boston Fed and Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner testifies before the Senate. Wednesday offers earnings from Morgan Stanley, Western Digital, Travelers, BNY Mellon, E*TRADE, AmEx and eBay; a new Fed Beige Book comes out, the September CPI is released and we also have data on September housing starts. Thursday, 3Q results roll in from Microsoft, AT&T, Chipotle, SanDisk, Nokia, AutoNation, Eli Lilly, McGraw-Hill and Capital One, along with September’s existing home sales numbers, new initial claims figures and the Conference Board’s latest LEI. Friday, earnings reports arrive from McDonald’s, GE, Honeywell and Verizon.
| % CHANGE | Y-T-D | 1-YR CHG | 5-YR AVG | 10-YR AVG |
| DJIA | +0.58 | +4.96 | -0.53 | +2.46 |
| NASDAQ | +0.56 | +9.55 | +2.63 | +5.73 |
| S&P 500 | -2.63 | +4.33 | -2.07 | +1.23 |
| REAL YIELD | 10/14 RATE | 1 YR AGO | 5 YRS AGO | 10 YRS AGO |
| 10 YR TIPS | 0.28% | 0.41% | 2.47% | 3.50% |
Sources: cnbc.com, bigcharts.com, treasury.gov, treasurydirect.gov – 10/14/114,5,6,7,8
Indices are unmanaged, do not incur fees or expenses, and cannot be invested into directly.
These returns do not include dividends.
When you invest your time with Warren Elkin and attend one of his lectures, workshops or seminars, you are getting the most accurate, up to date and safest investment options available today. His experience, skill and knowledge combined with his solid proven successful track record gives attendees the comfort and security they desire when making these difficult decisions about their retirement and how to secure the best and safest possible return on their investments. When considering your retirement, you need to know how much you will need, how you will finance your retirement and what low or no risks investments are available to you from someone you trust.
With three decades of satisfied clients under his belt, isn’t time you contact Warren Elkin to see what he can do for you to secure a solid future for you and your family? For a complimentary consultation with Warren Elkin, or to find out about his next engagement, please call toll free directly at 1-877-476-5051 or email him at warren@warrenelkin.com.
Filed under: Wealth Strategies Report | Tags: 401k Rollover, Annuities, Elkin Financial Report, Norhill Financial, Norhill Financial Report, Norhill Financial Strategies, Norhill Wealth Management, Norhill Wealth Strategies, retirement planning, Retirement Plans, Retirement Wealth Strategies, Safe Investments, Senior Investing, Senior Investments, Warren Elkin
By Warren Elkin, Norhill Wealth Strategies
October 10, 2011
HIRING IMPROVES…WITH A FOOTNOTE
Economists polled by MarketWatch had expected non-farm payrolls to increase by 59,000 for September. In a nice surprise, the economy added 103,000 jobs. However, 45,000 of those “hires” were actually striking Verizon employees returning to work. The unemployment rate remained at 9.1% for the third straight month. The Department of Labor revised the July and August jobs reports to include a cumulative 99,000 new hires.1
ONE ISM INDEx rises, another RETREATS
The start of the month brings fresh PMIs from the Institute for Supply Management. ISM’s service sector index lost 0.3 points between August and September, but the reading for last month came in at a decent 53.0. Its manufacturing index rose a full percentage point in September to 51.6.2
AUTO Sales PICK UP
September’s Commerce Department report showed big demand for domestic car brands: Ford sales rose 9%, GM sales 20% and Chrysler sales 27%. Overall U.S. auto sales were 9.9% improved from September 2010.3
RATES ON 30-YEAR FRMs DIP BELOW 4%
Those who can qualify for a refi or want to chance buying will find the lowest home loan rates on record right now. Freddie Mac’s October 6 Primary Mortgage Market Survey reported an average interest rate of 3.94% for conventional 30-year home loans and 3.26% for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages.4
OVERSEAS DECISIONS HELP STOCKS REBOUND
Last week, the European Central Bank announced it would address the EU debt crisis with year-long loans and covered bond purchases. That news and some mildly positive stateside indicators sent stocks higher. Last week’s performances: S&P 500, +2.1% to 1,155.46; DJIA, +1.7% to 11,103.12; NASDAQ, +2.7% to 2,479.35.5,6
THIS WEEK: Earnings season officially begins. Monday is Columbus Day; banks are closed, markets are open. Tuesday, Alcoa kicks things off; we also have interim earnings from Chevron and the latest FOMC minutes. Wednesday brings 3Q results from PepsiCo. Thursday, we get earnings from Google, JPMorgan Chase and Safeway and new initial claims figures. On Friday, the G20 finance ministers meet in Paris and the initial October University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey comes out, along with Commerce Department reports on business inventories and retail sales; Mattel releases earnings, and the new iPhone is for sale.
| % CHANGE | Y-T-D | 1-YR CHG | 5-YR AVG | 10-YR AVG |
| DJIA | -4.10 | +1.41 | -1.26 | +2.24 |
| NASDAQ | -6.54 | +4.01 | +1.56 | +5.44 |
| S&P 500 | -8.12 | -0.22 | -2.88 | +0.88 |
| REAL YIELD | 10/7 RATE | 1 YR AGO | 5 YRS AGO | 10 YRS AGO |
| 10 YR TIPS | 0.16% | 0.48% | 2.37% | 3.50% |
Sources: usatoday.com, online.wsj.com, bigcharts.com, treasury.gov, treasurydirect.gov – 10/7/115,6,7,8
Indices are unmanaged, do not incur fees or expenses, and cannot be invested into directly.
These returns do not include dividends.
When you invest your time with Warren Elkin and attend one of his lectures, workshops or seminars, you are getting the most accurate, up to date and safest investment options available today. His experience, skill and knowledge combined with his solid proven successful track record gives attendees the comfort and security they desire when making these difficult decisions about their retirement and how to secure the best and safest possible return on their investments. When considering your retirement, you need to know how much you will need, how you will finance your retirement and what low or no risks investments are available to you from someone you trust.
With three decades of satisfied clients under his belt, isn’t time you contact Warren Elkin to see what he can do for you to secure a solid future for you and your family? For a complimentary consultation with Warren Elkin, or to find out about his next engagement, please call toll free directly at 1-877-476-5051 or email him at warren@warrenelkin.com.
Filed under: Wealth Strategies Report | Tags: 401k Rollover, Annuities, Elkin Financial Report, Norhill Financial, Norhill Financial Report, Norhill Financial Strategies, Norhill Wealth Management, Norhill Wealth Strategies, retirement planning, Retirement Plans, Retirement Wealth Strategies, Safe Investments, Senior Investing, Senior Investments, Warren Elkin
October 3, 2011
By Warren Elkin, Norhill Wealth Strategies
AMERICANS SPEND A BIT MORE, EARN A BIT LESS
In August, personal spending improved by 0.2% while personal incomes retreated by 0.1%. This was the first monthly decline in household incomes since October 2009; July’s household earnings gain was revised down to 0.1%.1
An IMPROVEMENT IN CONSUMER SENTIMENT
September’s final University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey came in at 59.4, much better than the final August mark of 55.7 and topping the consensus forecast of 57.8 from economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index ticked up 0.2% to 45.4 this month.1
DURABLE GOODS DEMAND HOLDS UP IN AUGUST
The Commerce Department said overall hard goods orders declined 0.1% in August, but a closer look revealed some positives. Core capital goods orders (excluding the aircraft and transportation sectors) improved by 1.1% and core capital goods shipments were up by 2.8%.2
SURVEYING THE REAL ESTATE SECTOR
New home sales slipped 2.3% in August but showed a 6.1% annual gain, according to the Census Bureau. The same trend held true for pending home sales: the National Association of Realtors said they were down 1.2% for August but up 7.7% from a year before. The Standard & Poor’s/Case-Shiller home price index rose 0.9% in July with prices 4.1% underneath July 2010 levels.3,4,5
MIXED WEEK CLOSES OUT TOUGH MONTH
September saw major losses for the Dow (-6.03%), NASDAQ (-6.36%) and S&P 500 (-7.18%). Last week’s numbers showed the blue chips rising: DJIA, +1.32% for the week to settle Friday at 10,913.38; NASDAQ, -2.73% last week to 2,415.40; S&P 500, -0.44% last week to 1,131.42.6
THIS WEEK: Monday, ISM comes out with its September manufacturing index and we learn about September auto sales. Tuesday, Fed chairman Ben Bernanke speaks to Congress, the latest Apple iPhone is unveiled and Yum Brands announces 3Q earnings. Wednesday offers ISM’s September service sector index plus earnings from Costco, Marriott and Monsanto. On Thursday, the European Central Bank and Bank of England make monetary policy announcements, Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner testifies in Congress, and new initial claims figures also arrive. Friday, the Labor Department releases the September unemployment report.
| % CHANGE | Y-T-D | 1-YR CHG | 5-YR AVG | 10-YR AVG |
| DJIA | -5.74 | +1.16 | -1.31 | +2.35 |
| NASDAQ | -8.95 | +1.97 | +1.39 | +6.32 |
| S&P 500 | -10.04 | -0.86 | -3.06 | +0.89 |
| REAL YIELD | 9/30 RATE | 1 YR AGO | 5 YRS AGO | 10 YRS AGO |
| 10 YR TIPS | 0.17% | 0.75% | 2.27% | 3.50% |
Sources: cnbc.com, bigcharts.com, treasury.gov, treasurydirect.gov – 9/30/116,7,8,9
Indices are unmanaged, do not incur fees or expenses, and cannot be invested into directly.
These returns do not include dividends.
When you invest your time with Warren Elkin and attend one of his lectures, workshops or seminars, you are getting the most accurate, up to date and safest investment options available today. His experience, skill and knowledge combined with his solid proven successful track record gives attendees the comfort and security they desire when making these difficult decisions about their retirement and how to secure the best and safest possible return on their investments. When considering your retirement, you need to know how much you will need, how you will finance your retirement and what low or no risks investments are available to you from someone you trust.
With three decades of satisfied clients under his belt, isn’t time you contact Warren Elkin to see what he can do for you to secure a solid future for you and your family? For a complimentary consultation with Warren Elkin, or to find out about his next engagement, please call toll free directly at 1-877-476-5051 or email him at warren@warrenelkin.com.
Filed under: Wealth Strategies Report | Tags: 401k Rollover, Annuities, Elkin Financial Report, Norhill Financial, Norhill Financial Report, Norhill Financial Strategies, Norhill Wealth Management, Norhill Wealth Strategies, retirement planning, Retirement Plans, Retirement Wealth Strategies, Safe Investments, Senior Investing, Senior Investments, Warren Elkin
October 3, 2011
By Warren Elkin, Norhill Wealth Strategies
AMERICANS SPEND A BIT MORE, EARN A BIT LESS
In August, personal spending improved by 0.2% while personal incomes retreated by 0.1%. This was the first monthly decline in household incomes since October 2009; July’s household earnings gain was revised down to 0.1%.1
An IMPROVEMENT IN CONSUMER SENTIMENT
September’s final University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey came in at 59.4, much better than the final August mark of 55.7 and topping the consensus forecast of 57.8 from economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index ticked up 0.2% to 45.4 this month.1
DURABLE GOODS DEMAND HOLDS UP IN AUGUST
The Commerce Department said overall hard goods orders declined 0.1% in August, but a closer look revealed some positives. Core capital goods orders (excluding the aircraft and transportation sectors) improved by 1.1% and core capital goods shipments were up by 2.8%.2
SURVEYING THE REAL ESTATE SECTOR
New home sales slipped 2.3% in August but showed a 6.1% annual gain, according to the Census Bureau. The same trend held true for pending home sales: the National Association of Realtors said they were down 1.2% for August but up 7.7% from a year before. The Standard & Poor’s/Case-Shiller home price index rose 0.9% in July with prices 4.1% underneath July 2010 levels.3,4,5
MIXED WEEK CLOSES OUT TOUGH MONTH
September saw major losses for the Dow (-6.03%), NASDAQ (-6.36%) and S&P 500 (-7.18%). Last week’s numbers showed the blue chips rising: DJIA, +1.32% for the week to settle Friday at 10,913.38; NASDAQ, -2.73% last week to 2,415.40; S&P 500, -0.44% last week to 1,131.42.6
THIS WEEK: Monday, ISM comes out with its September manufacturing index and we learn about September auto sales. Tuesday, Fed chairman Ben Bernanke speaks to Congress, the latest Apple iPhone is unveiled and Yum Brands announces 3Q earnings. Wednesday offers ISM’s September service sector index plus earnings from Costco, Marriott and Monsanto. On Thursday, the European Central Bank and Bank of England make monetary policy announcements, Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner testifies in Congress, and new initial claims figures also arrive. Friday, the Labor Department releases the September unemployment report.
| % CHANGE | Y-T-D | 1-YR CHG | 5-YR AVG | 10-YR AVG |
| DJIA | -5.74 | +1.16 | -1.31 | +2.35 |
| NASDAQ | -8.95 | +1.97 | +1.39 | +6.32 |
| S&P 500 | -10.04 | -0.86 | -3.06 | +0.89 |
| REAL YIELD | 9/30 RATE | 1 YR AGO | 5 YRS AGO | 10 YRS AGO |
| 10 YR TIPS | 0.17% | 0.75% | 2.27% | 3.50% |
Sources: cnbc.com, bigcharts.com, treasury.gov, treasurydirect.gov – 9/30/116,7,8,9
Indices are unmanaged, do not incur fees or expenses, and cannot be invested into directly.
These returns do not include dividends.
When you invest your time with Warren Elkin and attend one of his lectures, workshops or seminars, you are getting the most accurate, up to date and safest investment options available today. His experience, skill and knowledge combined with his solid proven successful track record gives attendees the comfort and security they desire when making these difficult decisions about their retirement and how to secure the best and safest possible return on their investments. When considering your retirement, you need to know how much you will need, how you will finance your retirement and what low or no risks investments are available to you from someone you trust.
With three decades of satisfied clients under his belt, isn’t time you contact Warren Elkin to see what he can do for you to secure a solid future for you and your family? For a complimentary consultation with Warren Elkin, or to find out about his next engagement, please call toll free directly at 1-877-476-5051 or email him at warren@warrenelkin.com.
Filed under: Wealth Strategies Report | Tags: 401k Rollover, Annuities, Elkin Financial Report, Norhill Financial, Norhill Financial Report, Norhill Financial Strategies, Norhill Wealth Management, Norhill Wealth Strategies, retirement planning, Retirement Plans, Retirement Wealth Strategies, Safe Investments, Senior Investing, Senior Investments, Warren Elkin
By Warren Elkin, Norhill Wealth Strategies
September 19, 2011
CPI, PPI TELL DIFFERENT STORIES
According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the Consumer Price Index rose 0.4% in August – and annualized inflation came in at 3.8%, the highest rate in nearly three years. Annualized core inflation was +2.0% given a 0.2% rise in core CPI last month. On the other hand, producer prices showed the smallest annual gain since March: in August, they were up 6.5% year-over-year, compared to a 7.3% differential in May. The overall Producer Price Index was flat last month; core PPI went +0.1%.1,2
RETAIL SALES UNCHANGED FOR AUGUST
U.S. retail sales were flat last month, and that news from the Commerce Department wasn’t surprising in light of the recent pressures on household spending. This comes after (revised) gains of 0.2% in June and 0.3% in July.3
CONSUMERS FEEL A BIT MORE OPTIMISTIC
The University of Michigan’s initial September consumer sentiment survey showed some improvement: it came in at 57.8, up from the troublingly low 55.7 final August reading. Economists polled by Dow Jones Newswires had expected a rise to 57.0.4
gold DROPS, oil ADVANCES
Gold futures went -2.39% last week, part of a 3.29% two-week decline. The precious metal settled at $1,812.1o an ounce on the COMEX Friday. NYMEX crude closed at $87.96 a barrel Friday, going +0.83% last week and +6.93% in the last four weeks.5
CENTRAL BANK PLEDGE GIVES STOCKS A LIFT
Thursday, the Federal Reserve and four other central banks stated they would offer 3-month dollar loans to European commercial lenders to help them address any 4Q dollar liquidity problems. This aided a rally: U.S. stocks rose each day last week. The S&P 500 had its best week since late June (+5.35%), settling at 1,216.01 Friday. The NASDAQ (+6.25% to 2,622.31) and the Dow (+4.70% to 11,509.09) also climbed.6,7
THIS WEEK: Monday, markets will be poised to respond to the weekend efforts of Eurozone finance ministers (and Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner) to craft possible solutions to the EU’s sovereign debt problems; also, Lennar issues earnings. Tuesday, we get data on August housing starts and results from Adobe, ConAgra and Oracle. Wednesday, the Fed’s September policy meeting wraps up, and August existing home sales figures and earnings from General Mills arrive. On Thursday, Nike, FedEx, Discover, Cintas and CarMax issue results; new initial claims figures come in along with September’s Conference Board LEI index. KB Home announces earnings on Friday.
| % CHANGE | Y-T-D | 1-YR CHG | 5-YR AVG | 10-YR AVG |
| DJIA | -0.59 | +8.63 | -0.09 | +2.91 |
| NASDAQ | -1.15 | +13.85 | +3.46 | +6.60 |
| S&P 500 | -3.31 | +8.12 | -1.57 | +1.71 |
| REAL YIELD | 9/16 RATE | 1 YR AGO | 5 YRS AGO | 10 YRS AGO |
| 10 YR TIPS | 0.13% | 1.00% | 2.38% | 3.50% |
Sources: online.wsj.com, usatoday.com, bigcharts.com, treasury.gov, treasurydirect.gov – 9/16/118,9,10,11
Indices are unmanaged, do not incur fees or expenses, and cannot be invested into directly.
These returns do not include dividends.
When you invest your time with Warren Elkin and attend one of his lectures, workshops or seminars, you are getting the most accurate, up to date and safest investment options available today. His experience, skill and knowledge combined with his solid proven successful track record gives attendees the comfort and security they desire when making these difficult decisions about their retirement and how to secure the best and safest possible return on their investments. When considering your retirement, you need to know how much you will need, how you will finance your retirement and what low or no risks investments are available to you from someone you trust.
With three decades of satisfied clients under his belt, isn’t time you contact Warren Elkin to see what he can do for you to secure a solid future for you and your family? For a complimentary consultation with Warren Elkin, or to find out about his next engagement, please call toll free directly at 1-877-476-5051 or email him at warren@warrenelkin.com.
Filed under: Wealth Strategies Report | Tags: 401k Rollover, Annuities, Elkin Financial Report, Norhill Financial, Norhill Financial Report, Norhill Financial Strategies, Norhill Wealth Management, Norhill Wealth Strategies, retirement planning, Retirement Plans, Retirement Wealth Strategies, Safe Investments, Senior Investing, Senior Investments, Warren Elkin
By Warren Elkin, Norhill Wealth Strategies
WILL CONGRESS PASS THE $447 BILLION JOBS PLAN?
Thursday, President Obama challenged Congress to swiftly approve the American Jobs Act – a plan that would cut the payroll tax for workers and businesses to 3.1% in 2012 and offer tax credits as large as $4,000 to companies hiring people out of work for more than 6 months. If passed, the AJA would also pour about $80 billion into public works projects and extend long-term jobless benefits. A written response from House Speaker John Boehner (R-OH) and three other key Republican leaders noted that the plan will be quickly considered, but cited a need to “find common ground” and an assumption that the bill was not “an all-or-nothing proposition.”1,2
ISM SERVICES INDEX TOPS FORECASTS
Economists polled by Bloomberg News thought that the Institute for Supply Management’s non-manufacturing index would fall to 51.o in August. Instead, it bettered the 52.7 reading from July. The 53.3 August reading indicates some expansion in the industries that account for roughly 90% of the economy.3
BEIGE BOOK REPORTS TEPID OVERALL GROWTH
The latest Federal Reserve review of 12 U.S. economic regions noted expansion “at a modest pace, though some districts noted mixed or weakening activity.” Five regions reported some growth in July and August. Analysts wonder if this latest Beige Book is one more factor that could prompt the Fed to ease monetary policy.4
RECORD LOW YIELD FOR THE 10-YEAR NOTE
The benchmark Treasury yield decreased to 1.89% last Thursday, the lowest yield ever recorded by the Federal Reserve. The yield closed at 1.92% Friday.5,6
STOCKS ALTERNATELY SOAR, SWOON
Rumors of an imminent default in Greece thwarted any weekly gain for U.S. stocks. The S&P 500 finished the week at 1,154.23, while the NASDAQ and DJIA respectively ended the week at 2,467.99 and 10,992.13. As of Friday, the Dow had traded in a triple-digit range in 19 of the past 24 market days.7
THIS WEEK: No notable U.S. economic releases are scheduled for Monday. Tuesday, Best Buy releases an earnings report. Wednesday, the August PPI comes out along with Census Bureau reports on August retail sales and July business inventories. Thursday, the August CPI arrives, plus a look at August industrial output, new figures on initial jobless claims and results from Research in Motion; Fed chairman Ben Bernanke speaks briefly in the nation’s capital. Friday brings the initial September consumer sentiment index from the University of Michigan.
| % CHANGE | Y-T-D | 1-YR CHG | 5-YR AVG | 10-YR AVG |
| DJIA | -5.06 | +5.54 | -0.70 | +1.44 |
| NASDAQ | -6.97 | +10.37 | +2.79 | +4.56 |
| S&P 500 | -8.22 | +4.53 | -2.23 | +0.56 |
| REAL YIELD | 9/9 RATE | 1 YR AGO | 5 YRS AGO | 10 YRS AGO |
| 10 YR TIPS | -0.03% | 1.05% | 2.35% | 3.50% |
Sources: cnbc.com, usatoday.com, bigcharts.com, treasury.gov, treasurydirect.gov – 9/9/117,8,9,10,11,12
Indices are unmanaged, do not incur fees or expenses, and cannot be invested into directly.
These returns do not include dividends.
When you invest your time with Warren Elkin and attend one of his lectures, workshops or seminars, you are getting the most accurate, up to date and safest investment options available today. His experience, skill and knowledge combined with his solid proven successful track record gives attendees the comfort and security they desire when making these difficult decisions about their retirement and how to secure the best and safest possible return on their investments. When considering your retirement, you need to know how much you will need, how you will finance your retirement and what low or no risks investments are available to you from someone you trust.
With three decades of satisfied clients under his belt, isn’t time you contact Warren Elkin to see what he can do for you to secure a solid future for you and your family? For a complimentary consultation with Warren Elkin, or to find out about his next engagement, please call toll free directly at 1-877-476-5051 or email him at warren@warrenelkin.com.
Filed under: Wealth Strategies Report | Tags: 401k Rollover, Annuities, Elkin Financial Report, Norhill Financial, Norhill Financial Report, Norhill Financial Strategies, Norhill Wealth Management, Norhill Wealth Strategies, retirement planning, Retirement Plans, Retirement Wealth Strategies, Safe Investments, Senior Investing, Senior Investments, Warren Elkin
By Warren Elkin, Norhill Wealth Strategies
September 5, 2011
NO JOB GAINS IN AUGUST
In August, nonfarm payroll employment totaled 131.1 million – as it did in July. The Labor Department measured no job growth in the economy for the first time since September 2010. Additionally, employers reduced the average work week slightly to 34.2 hours. The unemployment rate remained at 9.1% last month.1
CONSUMER SPENDING IMPROVES BY 0.8%
This hugely encouraging July figure from the Commerce Department trounced forecasts and represented the best month for the statistic since February. Personal incomes improved by 0.3% in July; the personal savings rate hit a four-month low.2
PENDING HOME SALES DOWN, HOME PRICeS UP
The National Association of Realtors announced pending home sales had declined by 1.3% in July following three months of gains. The number of sales contracts was still 14.4% better than a year before. July’s Case-Shiller Home Price Index was notable for indicating a 3.6% 2Q gain in home prices, though the index was still down 5.9% year-over-year.2,3,4
MANUFACTURERS SIGNAL MINOR EXPANSION
The Institute for Supply Management’s August purchasing manufacturers index ticked down to 50.6 from July’s 50.9 mark. So the sector is growing, but not by much (50 is the line between expansion and contraction). The new orders sub-index improved 0.4% to 49.6.5
STOCKS GIVE BACK SOME GAINS
While the NASDAQ managed a 0.02% advance last week to settle at 2,480.33 on Friday, the S&P 500 and Dow had minor weekly losses. The DJIA retreated 0.39% to a Friday close of 11,240.26, and the S&P pulled back 0.24% to settle Friday at 1,173.97. Gold futures gained 4.43% on the week – prices jumped $47.70 on Friday alone.6,7
THIS WEEK: U.S. markets are closed for Labor Day. On Tuesday, ISM releases its August service sector index and Pep Boys issues earnings. Wednesday, the Fed puts out a new Beige Book and we have an earnings report from Hovnanian. Thursday promises to be interesting: the Bank of England and European Central Bank will each conclude policy meetings, Fed chief Ben Bernanke speaks in Minneapolis, President Obama addresses the nation on jobs and the economy, and of course new initial claims figures come out. Friday, we have earnings from Kroger.
| % CHANGE | Y-T-D | 1-YR CHG | 5-YR AVG | 10-YR AVG |
| DJIA | -2.91 | +8.92 | -0.39 | +1.24 |
| NASDAQ | -6.50 | +12.74 | +2.62 | +4.01 |
| S&P 500 | -6.65 | +7.69 | -2.09 | +0.36 |
| REAL YIELD | 9/2 RATE | 1 YR AGO | 5 YRS AGO | 10 YRS AGO |
| 10 YR TIPS | 0.00% | 1.05% | 2.25% | 3.50% |
Sources: cnbc.com, usatoday.com, bigcharts.com, treasury.gov, treasurydirect.gov – 9/2/116,8,9,10
Indices are unmanaged, do not incur fees or expenses, and cannot be invested into directly.
These returns do not include dividends.
When you invest your time with Warren Elkin and attend one of his lectures, workshops or seminars, you are getting the most accurate, up to date and safest investment options available today. His experience, skill and knowledge combined with his solid proven successful track record gives attendees the comfort and security they desire when making these difficult decisions about their retirement and how to secure the best and safest possible return on their investments. When considering your retirement, you need to know how much you will need, how you will finance your retirement and what low or no risks investments are available to you from someone you trust.
With three decades of satisfied clients under his belt, isn’t time you contact Warren Elkin to see what he can do for you to secure a solid future for you and your family? For a complimentary consultation with Warren Elkin, or to find out about his next engagement, please call toll free directly at 1-877-476-5051 or email him at warren@warrenelkin.com.
Norhill Wealth Strategies 